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A market is a question with a small set of possible answers, a deadline, and a clear process for deciding what happened.
This describes Numera’s custom markets, built around your own question. Trading on a real asset like Bitcoin instead? See continuous markets, which run on their own schedule.

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The parts

The question. Written so that once the deadline passes, there is one obvious answer everyone agrees on. The outcomes. Between two and four, covering every possibility, so exactly one turns out right. Yes and No is the common case. The deadline. Trading runs right up to it. After that, the market moves to settlement. The resolver. Who settles it. Each market names this when it is created, and it cannot be changed afterwards. See how a market settles.

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What stays fixed

Once a market exists, these are locked in:
  • The question
  • The outcomes
  • The deadline
  • How it will be resolved
  • The maximum fee
Fixed means fixed. There is no admin control to adjust them later. The terms you see when you trade are the terms that apply at settlement, which is what makes a price meaningful in the first place.
Exits are always available too. Even during an emergency pause, which only affects new trades, you can close a position and claim winnings.

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Why up to four outcomes

Money spread across many outcomes leaves each side of the market thinner, and thinner markets give less reliable prices. So a question with many possible answers becomes several markets rather than one. Each asks about a single answer, and each carries its full depth. Sharper questions, better prices.

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How a market starts

A new market needs a starting point, so whoever creates it puts in an equal amount across every outcome. Equal amounts means it opens with no built in opinion. A market with two outcomes starts at 50/50. It also means there is genuine capital in place from the very first trade, so early prices are sensible rather than erratic. That starting capital stays in until the market settles, so the market you trade into is the market that is there at the end.
Newer markets respond more to each trade, and busy ones absorb even large orders smoothly. Numera shows your exact cost before you confirm either way.

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How a market ends

Resolved. One outcome is confirmed correct. Every share of it is worth exactly $1. Voided. If a question turns out to be unanswerable, because the event was cancelled or reality did not match any listed outcome, the market is voided and everyone receives their money back. Voiding is a deliberate safeguard. A question that cannot be settled cleanly is returned rather than resolved on a judgement call.

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The question cannot change

The full wording of a market lives off the blockchain, since text that long does not belong there. But a fingerprint of it is written to the blockchain the moment the market is created. Change one character and the fingerprint no longer matches, visibly, to everyone. So the question you traded on is provably the question that settles.