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A market is a question with a small set of possible answers, a deadline, and a clear process for deciding what happened.

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The parts

The question. Written to have one obvious answer afterwards. “Will Team A win on Saturday?” works well. The outcomes. Between two and four, covering every possibility, so exactly one turns out right. Yes/No is the common case. The deadline. Trading runs right up to it. After that, the market moves to settlement. The resolver. How the answer is decided. Most markets use an open process where anyone can propose the answer and anyone can challenge it — see how a market settles.

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What stays fixed

Once a market exists, these are locked in:
  • The question
  • The outcomes
  • The deadline
  • How it will be resolved
  • The maximum fee
Fixed means fixed. There’s no admin control to adjust them later. The terms you see when you trade are the terms that apply at settlement — which is what makes a price meaningful in the first place.
Exits are always available too. Even during an emergency pause, which only affects new trades, you can close a position and claim winnings.

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Why up to four outcomes

Money spread across many outcomes leaves each side of the market thinner, and thinner markets give less reliable prices. So a five-horse race isn’t one market with five outcomes — it’s several “will this horse win?” markets, each with full depth behind it. Sharper questions, better prices.

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How a market starts

A new market needs a starting point, so whoever creates it puts in an equal amount across every outcome. Equal amounts means it opens with no built-in opinion — a two-outcome market starts at 50/50 — and it means there’s real money in place from the very first trade, so early prices are sensible rather than erratic. That starting capital stays in until the market settles, so the market you trade into is the market that’s there at the end.
Newer markets respond more to each trade, and well-traded ones absorb even large orders smoothly. Numera shows your exact cost before you confirm either way.

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How a market ends

Resolved. One outcome is confirmed correct. Every share of it is worth exactly $1. Voided. If a question turns out to be unanswerable — the event was cancelled, or reality didn’t match any listed outcome — the market is voided and everyone receives their money back. Voiding is a deliberate safeguard. A question that can’t be settled cleanly is returned rather than resolved on a judgement call.

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The question can’t change

The full wording of a market lives off the blockchain, since text that long doesn’t belong there. But a fingerprint of it is written to the blockchain the moment the market is created. Change one character and the fingerprint no longer matches — visibly, to everyone. So the question you traded on is provably the question that settles.